Big Economic shocks tend to do to prime ministers. Jim Gallagher was finished after a winter of discontent, and George was on the writing wall for John Major on Wednesday after the Bank of England lost a fight with George Soros and his fellow speculators. Gordon Brown would have had a good chance of knocking down David Cameron.
Brown’s defeat in 2010 marked the beginning of four electoral defeats for Labor, the last of which took place between 1979 and 1992. It has not suffered five consecutive defeats since it became the ruling party in the 1920s.
A year ago, after its worst display since the 1930s, it was more likely. Even now, the chances of Sir Khair Stormer becoming Prime Minister are no better than 50-50. That’s progress.
Although the attack on Conservative Party support was the most severe since Black Wednesday, the epidemic clearly helped.
This may have something to do with Boris Johnson’s reluctance by voters to a crisis that is not in his own production, or the general public is cutting the Conservative party more sluggishly than Labor. Brown handled the financial crisis much more firmly than Johnson did with Covit-19.
It may be a little more than that. Broadly speaking, voters seem to approve of the general impetus of last year’s government economic policy: they want exciting, VAT holidays, subsidies for businesses and all other stimulus measures, with the result that this is a year of a peace deficit. If anything – they witnessed the U-turns forced by Johnson by Marcus Rashford’s school food campaign – they will be glad to see that the treasury fork is still high.
Not all Tories are comfortable with this approach. Rishi Sunak wants to start repairing the gaps in public funds in his budget on March 3, not only because he is worried about the risk of financial markets deteriorating, but also because he wants to build a war chest for tax cuts ahead of the 2024 election.
If the Chancellor really thinks this is a good idea, he is not nearly as clever as people would lend him, because the Prime Minister is now adamant that strict social distance restrictions will last until late spring – perhaps for the long haul. I.e. generous financial assistance continued. Otherwise, companies that have been open for the past one year will go bust and people who have been exempted from the toll line will lose their jobs. This is the path to slow recovery in weak recovery and deficit reduction.
What’s more, Sunak should not assume that they will now come to a bit of a belt tightening, as voters thought Labor Party’s spending plans in the 2019 election were too good to be true. People who work in theaters and nightclubs will feel that it is only fair that they should continue to be paid whenever their workplaces close. For similar reasons, Sunak would take a big risk if he finishes top-up for a global loan of £ 20 a week.
Labor smells of an opportunity here, it was clear But read on Presented by Shadow Chancellor Annecy Tots this month. It was an important speech, interesting in what it said and what it did not say.
What Dots said was that the Doris Covit-19 crisis was created by delaying a pig’s ear and the economic damage would have been less if the government had followed Labor’s recommendations to respond quickly to scientific advice. Stormer wants to see Labor as an efficient party rather than an ideological party.
To send that message home, Tots made it clear that there was no question of a Labor government issuing orders to the Bank of England, which would be completely independent. She has no time for modern monetary theory, the idea that central banks can be ordered to finance government spending, and the only obstacle to doing so is inflation.
According to the Treasury, managing public funds should be managed by “uninterrupted focus” on the value for money, not by pragmatism. There is nothing to scare the horses out there.
Two things were left unsaid. First, despite criticism of the government’s abstraction in the pre-Christmas Brexit trade talks, Labor acknowledged that Brexit had now taken place and that it needed to move forward. Stormer did not think about bringing Britain back into the EU; Instead, he is working on plans for how Labor will respond to the new opportunities and challenges presented by Brexit.
Second, nothing is mentioned about nationalization – a large part of Jeremy Corbyn’s base in the 2017 and 2019 elections. A Stormer government will tighten competition policy and bring in anti-trust rules before bringing businesses under state control.
Stormer and Dots seem to have come to the same conclusion as Tony Blair and Brown in the 1990s: Labor must avoid radical policies to avoid losing again.
Andrew Skatergood, co-chairman of the Momentum pressure group, said after Mice’s speech that it was not enough for Labor to be capable managers of the same bad organization, but that Stormer and Dots would not lose much sleep about being taken to task for not delivering something big and brave. They want to be seen as talented managers. That is the point.