The United Kingdom has a problem. Due to the corona virus infection, it is still one of the so-called black countries and its economy is growing. The country said goodbye to the European Union in a referendum five years ago, and it is now half a year since Brexit ended. However, it has not yet fully realized the consequences of splitting with the union. It was an epidemic and reversed by the frustration of people with difficulty coping with Govt-19.
Brexit temperance has not yet arrived
.The economic consequences of an epidemic So big The effect of Brexit is very difficult to detect, “States John Čarný, CEO of Coface for the Slovak Republic and the Czech Republic, on the brink of development. England Not only was the first wave of infection hit hard, But the second so-called British variant this winter.
“It simply came to our notice then Severe locking for several months And a further decline in GDP in the first quarter of 2021 1.5%. Of course, compared to spring 2020 GDP decline –19.5% This is only a very small reduction in performance. Because this time they were Industry and construction are very flexibleBruno de Marra economist Bruno de Marra Fernandez explains.
According to him, the effects of the infection were the effects of Brexit Not yet realized. “The country has postponed the introduction of most customs controls at the borders Until January 2022, Can still Continue importing items as before. That is expected The effects of Brexit will be felt in the Middle AgesWhen they affect the choice of business space and productivity, “says P. Fernandez.
for now The most important effect of Brexit Perfectly realized in January 2021 Trade flow slowed. “Many companies expect Brexit this fall in trade Largely pre-stored. It is mainly about the automobile, chemical and pharmaceutical sectors. In addition to the restrictions caused by administrative procedures, this was also the case for some companies Natural reaction, ”Notes j. Arný.
Business is in February He started running again And after a period of time in line with the new practices, it is now firm Normalizing trade relations. “It simply came to our notice then Customs controls are currently only one way, I.e. as far as British exports to EU countries are concerned. except that The epidemic led to a decrease in demand, So trade jumps in the first quarter of this year were lower than normal We avoided confusion And many lorries are stuck on the UK border, ”he continued.
Who are the exporters An increase in management is expected, The situation in general They did well. Administrative and customs duties of less than 20 euros are for most companies Affordable cost.
Strengthens resistance to frustration from infection
Brexit is still in the islands Residents did not fully realize itPublic frustration is growing over managing the epidemic and has the effect of supporting the enemies of the United Kingdom. “Even though the government has managed the vaccination phase very well, The general administration of the epidemic was highly critical of the public In Scottish society, this dissatisfaction Strengthened the sentiment in favor of freedomEconomist b. Fernandez points out.
However, most studies over the past two months report it Proponents of independence will lose the referendum. “If the health condition is under control and in the coming months A strong recovery in economic activity is expected, Can be supporters of freedom In close minorities, ”Concludes the economist.
If this prediction is fulfilled, Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon will begin a referendum on independence. Have to wait for the most favorable moment. Second referendum on independence Can’t play.
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