November 30, 2021

Beyond Going Long

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It’s not a shutdown policy, but a sadistic one

yesterday 20:01

What the government presented as a ban campaign according to mathematician Richard Kollard is not a lockdown, but an authority and a problem we will all face. “This is a technical term used in mathematics – chaos. However, it is a system in which some of our politicians feel like they are fishing in water. It is their normal living space,” he would laugh if it weren’t so sad.

There will be no fun Catherine! Mathematician Richard Kollar, who modeled the evolution of the epidemic, stated on his Facebook.

Yesterday the government announced a two-week lockdown starting the following day. According to his own words, Kollar has not yet risen from this press. Not only from the endless streak we are still thinking about, but according to him, this shutdown is one big authority. Explain why he thinks so and what will follow.

Austria can handle it, we can’t

Kollar gave the example of neighboring Austria, which “a few days ago showed us what exactly the way out of the epidemic is – a set of measures. Strict closure and the consequent mandatory vaccinations with severe penalties ”, which, unlike our government, was communicating briefly, clearly and in advance even People can arrange themselves. “Austria can do it,” Assuming a mathematician. we?

“Today we have full hospitals and a very low vaccination level, but we have no strict lockdown and no vaccination at all.” Kollar blames Prime Minister Edward Heger (OĽANO) for not mentioning vaccination much yesterday, but said they are now evaluating what is best.

“If such a strict lockdown doesn’t work, it’s a phenomenon in the world.” The Prime Minister said yesterday. But Kollar reminded him that we’ve been closed here for a year and longer.

“But the procedures I’m introducing are not a shutdown, so we are all going to have this big problem with it. And if the vaccination is not fundamentally increased, but really fundamental, we will have that problem to a greater extent again in the future. Because we know how many nurses we have and how they get paid.” The mathematician also blamed the PM for hearing nothing of the increased motivation of doctors and paramedics yesterday, if only they said so in the ultrasound squad.

“Simply put – we had three problems yesterday – whole hospitals, low vaccination rates and a small number of medical staff, and we did not try to solve them either. We eliminated many reasons why many were vaccinated. Sadomasochism had to be followed, but it is also sadomasochism as a dogma for the whole country “. He did not take the handkerchief in front of Kollar’s mouth. His only consolation is that, as is customary in our country, he will probably apply this system for a short time. By his own judgment, he expects changes to occur within a week, when politicians realize that this does not solve the problems they want to solve, and that it will not take two weeks.

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We dig the ground under our feet

According to Kolar, Slovakia makes the worst decisions under pressure. “The result is that no one is happy. Neither these politicians, nor the professional council, nor the citizens. The decisions are full of details that make absolutely no sense and lead precisely to the suppression of what helps the epidemic more – even more than vaccines – which is confidence in the state. It went and then We can ask ourselves why are people not being vaccinated?”

“We undermine the earth ourselves and then complain that people don’t follow the laws and rules (ordinances), that they don’t listen to us. They will never listen to you like this again, if you let them go 500m with a dog or cat and 1000m with children, they should Everyone use GPS. If you want confirmation from your employer on the way to work from midnight under the ordinance, you won’t be able to write it down by midnight,” The mathematician complains.

What will follow now?

Although the PM doesn’t know what lies ahead because he doesn’t have a crystal ball, the mathematician thinks it has more to do with rapidly changing rules. But he tried to determine what would happen if the rules remained as stated.

“The number of positive tests will decrease over the next few days. Not because the epidemiological situation has improved, it will not be affected by a real lockdown in a few days, not this authority.” According to Kollár, interest in PCR testing will decline in lokcdowna. “In particular, those suspected of being negative will stop getting tested. Therefore, the infection rate will decrease, but the positivity of tests is likely to increase, as there will be more and more infections. The epidemic is a train and it is slowing.”

According to the mathematician, the effect of the regime change will disappear after about a week. “We simply learned about it at the time. However, this is because with PCR tests above 40%, this is no longer relevant. Of course, the epidemiological situation may improve a little at that time, but it will not be possible to notice it in the data, And it will not be clear whether the changes in it, whether a decrease or an increase, are actually due to a change in the metrics, or improvement, or only the instrumental changes in the number of tests and the test sample.” So Kollár is curious about what they want to rate after 10 days, as advertised, or even every other day. According to the mathematician, this is absurd.

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Only a dog suffers

“Transferring testing to employers to an undisclosed negative testing system at MOM is likely to lead to a significant increase in adult test positivity. However, a significant portion of those tested will be children, so, in fact, the system changed yesterday And they could only be tested by home tests. I really have no idea who will be tested by MOM antigen tests in a week and why at all.” A mathematician on antigen tests is further thinking.

According to mathematicians, hospitalization data will say nothing. “If we enforce a strict lockdown today, which we haven’t introduced, then the demand for hospitalization would rise for a few more days, stop, then fall in about a week and then go down. In that case, we would reach the level of demand today in about 10-15 days. But we don’t have a strict lockdown. We’ve limited major distribution avenues in recent weeks — schools, families, workplaces — only with 7-day workplace antigen testing. At this point I should fall for Huron’s laughter, but I’m sticking with it now.”

“No, these measures eliminate spread only marginally, and the dominant patterns remain full throttle. He only suffers from a dog who is only 500 meters from home. When there is only concrete around him, he is unlucky, he looks at the lamp, and he gets used to it Like kids who couldn’t go further than 1,000 meters, they stormed the school. People will definitely follow this. Sure, believe me, you won’t just break it! Huron laughed again.” The mathematician scoffs, saying that he would have laughed if he had not been sad.

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harsh experience

The mathematician also evaluated mortality, although the data was too late to spread. “In terms of the number of deaths reported in the past seven days per million inhabitants, we are now 14th in the world. Bulgaria currently leads Georgia and Croatia. They are followed by Hungary, Latvia and Ukraine. However, our contender will be on the podium in two weeks, along with The Czech Republic, which is still one place behind us. What I can say for sure, Austria won’t be there, they are currently in 28th, they have a level of vaccination, we will probably never get it, they have a lockdown and then vaccination,” Kollar once again praised our neighbors’ anti-epidemic measures.

“I don’t know if the Prime Minister yesterday thought number one in the world’s deaths as what they would evaluate in two weeks as a success and a reason to release. The UK did it in the summer and it was a tough experiment but it was based on more than 90% of the antibodies in Population. We don’t have that. And the UK probably won’t be able to do it in our hospitals either.” Kollár compares.

“What the data will look like after we banned hiking for dogs and kids (thankfully they didn’t come to demonstrate for the government office), or what we closed part of barbershops and hairdressers, or what we banned inter-county crossings (Huron laughed again), we know Really. We know a lot at least that if these measures go on for more than 7 days (which I don’t personally believe in), we will ignore it in a couple of weeks and then the same until Christmas.”

The first day in the insurance room in the photo gallery

“This is a technical term used in mathematics – chaos. However, it is a system in which some of our politicians feel like they are fishing in water. It is their natural habitat.” Mathematician Kolar concluded the topic of closing “power”.