The Corona virus R number in the UK is largely unchanged, now ranging from 1.2 to 1.3, as estimated by SAGE.
Last week the R number was rated 1-1.4.
In London, southeast and southwest, northeast and Yorkshire the numbers have declined slightly.
But it has risen slightly in eastern England, the Midlands and the North West.
The growth rate is now estimated to be between + 2% and + 5% – last week, it was 0% to + 6%.
R – or Reproduction Number – indicates how fast COVID-19 spreads, and regional differences in the R number indicate where the virus is spreading the fastest.
The latest R&D growth estimates for the NHS UK regions are:
- England – 1.1-1.3 and +1 to +4
- East of England – 1.0-1.3 and 0 to +4
- London 0.9-1.2 and -2 to +3
- Midlands 1.2-1.4 and +2 to +6
- North East and Yorkshire – 1.1-1.3 and +2 to +5
- North West – 1.2-1.5 and +3 to +7
- Southeast 1.0-1.2 and -1 to +3
- Southwest 1.2-1.5 and +4 to +7
The update comes later Research by the University of Cambridge Suggested that in some areas R is less than No. 1 in the UK.
It suggested that the overall breeding rate across the country was declining “but with greater regional variation”.
Experts advising the government, the growth rates for the UK, the UK and most regions and the limits of the number of R have decreased, which reflects greater certainty in the estimates.
They said the estimates were based on the latest data available until January 11.
SAGE said: “Recent statistics show that we need to be vigilant to keep this virus under control, protect the NHS and save lives.
“We must all do our part. If everyone continues to follow the rules, we can expect to reduce R numbers across the country.”
This week’s estimates are considered reliable by SAGE, with the R number high in the Midlands – down between 1.1-1.4 last week, while London fell slightly, recording an R number between 1.1-1.4.
Estimates indicate the prevalence of COVID-19 over the past few weeks because of the time lag between a person being infected, having symptoms, and requiring health care.
Kevin McConaughey, an Emeritus professor of application statistics at The Open University, told Sky News that the interesting thing about this week’s R number compared to last week was that “the range has been reduced by a large amount”.
But he said the R number was “not regionally uniform”.
“The R number is based on data that is completely irrelevant to the current state of the epidemic because they use hospital-admitted data and tragically related deaths,” he said.
Ahead of this week’s R-N announcement, Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned the public in a video on Twitter that “you should think twice before leaving home this weekend” and that you will win the fight against the corona virus “Jab by Jab”.
Analysis: Regional R number changes are interesting
News correspondent Adele Robinson
The regional variation in R number and growth rate is particularly interesting.
Southwest and Northwest have the highest rated R numbers ranging from 1.2 to 1.5.
This means that on average 12 out of every 10 people will be infected.
The growth rate for those two regions is also the highest in the UK.
In the southwest, the number of infections is estimated to be increasing by 4% to 7% every day, and in the northwest by 3% to 7%.
The R number in London has fallen from 0.9 to 1.2, compared to what was estimated at 1.1 to 1.4 last week.