The NIESR has forecast that the British economy will grow by 6.9% this year and 4.7% next year. However, in 2023, the company expects a sharp recession of 1.7% growth. Further recession is expected to be 1.3% in 2024.
However, in addition to the current supply chain problems, the situation in the UK economy is being complicated by the effects of Brexit. The company added that these were mainly due to low corporate investments and a decline in the number of employees from EU countries.
The NIESR’s rating is largely similar to that of the Bank of England (BoE), but unlike the central bank, the company expects higher inflation in the long run. “The BOE considers, and we think, there is no reason why high inflation should not be here for a long time.” NIESR Vice President Paul Mortimer-Lee said.
According to the NIESR, companies’ efforts to return to higher profit margins, energy prices and supply chain problems will push inflation to 5% in the second quarter of next year. Currently, according to the latest data, it is more than 3%.
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